The episode in detail
The car as the dominant mode of transport: a legacy of urban planning and car lobbying
In France, half of all trips under one kilometre are made by car. The figure, confirmed by INSEE, defies any rational explanation. Gonéri Le Cozannet, a researcher at BRGM and author of the IPCC’s sixth report, identifies the causes: decades of urban planning built around the car, structural dependency in peri-urban areas, and car lobbying that keeps the status quo in place.
The IPCC report is not a report about cycling. It is a report about climate. But it studies cycling as one of the available solutions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate change. The finding is clear: the private car takes up a disproportionate share of urban space, at the expense of walking and cycling.
“The private car takes up a lot of space and leaves little for other modes of transport, particularly walking and cycling.”
The imagery of success: car lobbying beyond advertising
Car lobbying is not confined to the corridors of institutions. It also works through advertising, ever present on television and in public space. Images of attractive scenery, with an imposing vehicle in the foreground, sometimes electric but always oversized. These images manufacture a desire that is incompatible with sustainability.
The IPCC asks the question directly in chapter 13, section 11 (Europe): what are the cultural and social norms that link success to vehicle size? As long as this equation goes unquestioned, modal shift stays held back by the imagery inherited from the oil era.
At institutional level, the French car industry carries real weight. Several major manufacturers mean that public decisions systematically factor in the preservation of these industries. The result: a chronic imbalance between investment in roads and investment in cycling.
“Is success really measured by the size of the vehicle you own? That is a question raised in the IPCC report.”
Cycling seen as a step backwards: a cultural barrier to dismantle
Some Parisians complain there are “too many bikes” and talk of regression. This sentiment is not identified as such in the IPCC report, but it connects to the cultural and social norms studied by the researchers. The idea that cycling represents a step backwards from the car is a social construct, not a technical reality.
The IPCC report offers part of the answer: once safe, comfortable cycle paths are in place, few people want to go back. These changes can be contentious when first introduced, but they are quickly accepted. Nobody wants a city that is congested, polluted and noisy again.
“These changes are potentially contentious when they are introduced, but once they are in place, going back is not accepted.”
Levers for action: from the individual to public policy
The IPCC report is clear: at individual level, levers exist but remain limited. Transport and diet are the two areas where each person can act directly on their carbon footprint. For everything else, change is down to institutions.
Gonéri sets out the levels of action identified by the IPCC. First, the state, through favourable legislation and enough investment to build cycling infrastructure. Then regions and départements, for network coordination. Finally, municipalities, with well-designed local transport plans.
The Dutch model shows what consistent policy can achieve. Cities there are organised so the car becomes a last resort: you enter the city at one point, you do not drive through it, and you leave by the same point. Through traffic by car is eliminated. The result: a huge share of trips made by bike, without the car disappearing altogether.
The social mandate: should we wait for elections to act?
Gonéri raises a fundamental problem. Many elected officials were not elected on a pro-cycling platform. Without an explicit social mandate, changes stay fragile. But waiting for that mandate risks stalling everything. The debate resembles a chicken-and-egg problem: no mandate without public demand, no demand without infrastructure, no infrastructure without a mandate.
For Gonéri, breaking that loop calls for an honest public conversation about climate risks and opportunities. Heatwaves, ozone pollution, avoidable deaths: health and climate arguments need to be stated clearly in public debate. The quality of that debate is a precondition. Yet in France, some media outlets spread misinformation about climate and the environment, which makes building a consensus harder.
“If we want to meet the Paris targets, we need to halve emissions by 2030.”
Tactical urbanism: proof that change can happen fast
The IPCC report documents rapid changes after Covid. In Bogotá, Buenos Aires and Santiago in Chile, the number of cyclists increased sixfold within months, through tactical urbanism: cycle paths created from nothing, using simple bollards placed along traffic lanes.
Europe has favourable conditions. Its cities are old, well established, and relatively compact. Even peri-urban areas keep village centres where further density is possible. Compared with North American urban sprawl of the Houston type, the European structure is compatible with a shift towards walking and cycling.
The key point, repeated by Gonéri and confirmed by advocacy groups, is this: safe, comfortable cycle paths. Once they exist, cyclists arrive. Campaigners know the principle by the phrase “build it and they will come”. The IPCC, through its own scientific methods, reaches the same conclusion.
“It is possible to move quickly. After Covid, the number of cyclists in some South American cities increased sixfold, just with tactical urbanism.”
